White papers
The Expansion of the Russia–Ukraine War into the Baltic Sea (2025–2026)
The Baltic Sea has for many decision makers and analysts turned from a low-intensity maritime area to an area of hybrid threats and NATO-Russia confrontation. Still, this somewhat misses the mark. With the intensifying Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian energy export terminals near St Petersburg, the Baltic Sea is no longer an area of grey zone action but has turned into an active theatre of war. This has, and will, come with extensive implications for regular commercial shipping.
Syria’s oil and gas sector: prospects for revival
After nearly 14 years of conflict, Syria’s oil and gas sector is emerging as one of the few levers capable of shaping the country’s political stability, economic recovery, and regional relevance. In our whitepaper, we are exploring how control over energy resources has become central to negotiations between authorities in Damascus and the Kurdish-led administration in the northeast, where most of Syria’s oil and gas assets are located.
The report outlines the extent of war-related damage to upstream, midstream, and downstream infrastructure, and explains why oil and gas remain critical to restoring electricity supply, public services, and state legitimacy. It also places these dynamics in a broader geopolitical context, examining the roles of Turkey, Russia, Gulf states, Western actors, and foreign energy companies as Syria cautiously reopens to external engagement. By mapping plausible scenarios for reunification, decentralisation, and foreign involvement, the whitepaper also provides decision-makers with a structured framework to understand what is at stake and which are important signals to watch.
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