Venezuela sets the stage for a challenging year

Small and mid-sized vessels anchored across open water under a wide coastal sky. Credit: Photo by Yue WU on Unsplash

08 January 2026

The new year has started with a display of power by the US and a shifting of international norms, casting a spotlight on a potential new cast of maritime security challenges for 2026.

By Guy Wilson-Roberts, Head of Intelligence Analysis

Against the expectations of many observers, the US increased pressure against Venezuela not by new strikes against drug trafficking or even military infrastructure, but a dramatic operation to capture President Maduro and his wife to bring them to trial in the United States. This effectively ended his presidency overnight but also upended assumptions about what the US will or will not do in support of its foreign policy goals.

The new US National Security Strategy – which was released in December 2025 – emphasised a rebuilding of US capabilities: “peace through strength.” Although it outlines a “predisposition to non-intervention”, it also sets out a Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine for the Western Hemisphere: a “potent restoration of American power” that will include “where necessary the use of lethal force.”

Deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller articulated the US global perspective in a recent interview with CNN: “We’re a superpower. And under President Trump, we are going to conduct ourselves as a superpower.”

Commentators and analysts will spend much time in assessing the goals for US policy and what it might lead to next elsewhere in the world, as well as the implications for international law and relations between countries. But what does this all mean for maritime security and the threats facing commercial maritime operations in the year ahead?

Recent years have seen a general decline in direct maritime security threats – such as hijackings, kidnappings of seafarers or armed robberies – even though hot spots remain. At the same time, there has been an increase in threats related to wider geo-political and strategic developments.

These include specific geographic threats, for example in the Black Sea from drone attacks or in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman from drone attacks and vessel seizures. The most notable threat has been the effective closure of the southern Red Sea to certain vessel traffic by a semi-state actor – the Houthis – as an extension of their campaign against Israel.

Another factor is the increased willingness to exploit the vulnerability of commercial shipping and its political value by states. This has come through sanctions and restrictions. It could also include blockades and no-sail areas in support of political goals or as the result of state-to-state conflict. In short, as the international system shifts, there will be new geographic areas of tension and new flashpoints that will have potential implications for maritime security.

At Risk Intelligence, our focus will be on the long-term implications and the short-term impacts of new – and old – threats on commercial maritime operations. This will continue to include deep dives into specific areas of interest, for example critical maritime infrastructure or developments across the Middle East and in Asia. In January, we are launching a series of webinars which will include some of these as well as various other issues.

We expect a year of dramatic headlines. That makes it even more important to analyse developments behind those headlines and to identify the actual impacts on the security of maritime operations.

📢 MARITIME SECURITY REPORTS:

Our Risk Intelligence reports provide valuable insights to assess the risks of specific routes and support decision-making with detailed threat assessments.

The Voyage Risk Assessment focuses on a vessel’s specific route and offers an independent third-party perspective on the necessary security measures. The Monthly Intelligence Report delivers comprehensive analysis of recent incidents and a threat assessment for three key regions, available via subscription.