Jutarnji list | Finnish analyst for Jutarnji: ‘Russia has no chance against NATO, but there is another scenario…’

Illustrative image: U.S. Marines inspect tactical vehicles during convoy training ahead of Exercise Freezing Winds 24 in Dragsvik, Finland, October 2024. Photo: U.S. Marine Corps / Lance Cpl. Christian Salazar. Source: Wikimedia Commons (Public Domain). The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

Risk Intelligence Senior Advisor Robin Häggblom was interviewed by Croatian newspaper Jutarnji list for its Prva linija (First Line) podcast, sharing his assessment of the war in Ukraine, developments on the battlefield and the potential threat Russia could pose to NATO members.

Published on 20 October 2026, the article discusses the ongoing war in Ukraine, including the growing role of unmanned systems, the strengths and weaknesses of Ukrainian and Russian forces, and the prospects for further Russian advances.

Häggblom describes the conflict as a war of attrition, identifying Ukraine’s manpower shortages and weaker economy as significant challenges. At the same time, he highlights Ukraine’s technological innovation, particularly in the use of unmanned systems, and its fighting spirit as key strengths. He considers a major Russian breakthrough towards Kramatorsk and Slovyansk unlikely in the near term.

Looking at the wider security implications, Häggblom suggests that Europe could compensate for much of the reduced US assistance on the battlefield, although ballistic missile defence remains a significant challenge. He also notes that while Russia has forces available to attack NATO members such as Finland or the Baltic states, these would not be sufficient to defeat NATO forces. However, he raises the possibility that Russia could seek a limited regional conflict as NATO continues to strengthen its defences, using hybrid warfare and nuclear threats to isolate individual NATO members.

Read the full article and watch the interview in Croatian on Jutarnji list.

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