Monthly Intelligence Report January 2026

This month’s issue of the Monthly Intelligence Report covers incidents that took place between December 1 - 31, 2025, in three focus regions:

• West Africa

• Western Indian Ocean (including the Persian Gulf)

• South East Asia

Focus topic: Undercurrents for maritime operations in Asia

This month, we are taking a look at recent events in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea which are taking place in a broader context of trade and politics becoming more closely linked. Relevant to both locations is the new US National Security Strategy, released in December. The document provides clarity on US priorities for Asia, yet it also introduced a new ambiguity over Taiwan that represents the Trump administration’s transactional approach to foreign and security policies.

In addition, the report provides a brief update on the maritime implications of the war in Ukraine.

This month's risk and threat assessment

In the report's assessment, the main incidents are put into a broader context to highlight current threat levels and potential changes for maritime operations. Moreover, the report includes forecasts that cover the main concerns in the coming weeks.