Monthly Intelligence Report April 2026

This month’s issue of the Monthly Intelligence Report covers incidents that took place between March 1 - 31, 2026, in three focus regions:

• West Africa

• Western Indian Ocean (including the Persian Gulf)

• South East Asia

Focus topic: War against Iran – implications and outlook

This month, we are taking a look at the US-Israeli war against Iran. The situation in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz has entered a form of “conflict equilibrium”, with a continuation of strikes by all belligerents but no change in the overall strategic positions. Talks have begun between Iran and the US, though it is uncertain how committed either side is to these talks. Moreover, Iran is seeking credible deterrence against Israeli attacks in the future, strengthening the Iranian desire to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz after the war.

In addition, the report provides a brief update on the maritime implications of the war in Ukraine.

This month's risk and threat assessment

In the report's assessment, the main incidents are put into a broader context to highlight current threat levels and potential changes for maritime operations. Moreover, the report includes forecasts that cover the main concerns in the coming weeks.