The Taiwan Strait is a key shipping route, with 88% of the world’s largest ships by tonnage passing through it. Recent Chinese military exercises in the strait have caused little disruption to traffic, but a recent US state visit to Taiwan triggered a significant reaction from China that has caused concerns about future impacts of the China - Taiwan conflict. Analyst Katie Zeng Xiaojun has an update.

The Republic of China (ROC), or Taiwan, has been governed separately from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) since 1949. It occupies an awkward place in international relations. Despite being a democracy of over 20 million people and an economy in the top tier globally by exports and imports, it is not widely recognised as a ‘state’ and is not a member of the United Nations. The PRC government in Beijing sees Taiwan as a breakaway province that it hopes to unify one day, which creates tensions in Beijing-Taipei and regional relations.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February, everything from consumer goods, to fuel, to heating, has become increasingly expensive for companies and consumer alike. With the Summer over and staring down the Autumn and Winter in Europe and the West, heating prices will compound the cost-of-living crisis. As most wages will fail to follow the inflation, industrial action disrupting the supply-chains over the Autumn and Winter of 2022/23 is becoming very likely.

On 21 August 2022, Felixstowe, the busiest port in the UK handling almost 50% of UK container traffic, saw work ground to a crawl as 1.900 port workers began an eight-day strike. The union representing the port workers had negotiated salaries with the port over the Summer, but as the parties failed to find common ground, the picket lines started forming on 21 August.

Algeria and Italy are going through a gas-fed honeymoon. Over the past year, Algeria has hosted a slew of state visits by high-ranking Italian officials, including President Sergio Mattarella and Prime Minister Mario Draghi. The Draghi Government’s commitment to the partnership was such that the Italian PM visited Algeria in July, even while embroiled in a domestic political crisis that ultimately led to the breakdown of Italy’s ruling coalition.

On July 18 2022, a host of agreements were announced between both countries, covering everything from counter-extremism efforts to large infrastructure projects. Crucially, Algeria committed to increasing its gas deliveries to Italy, delivering upwards of 9 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2023, up from 3 bcm in 2021.

In addition to the many challenges faced by Egypt, including inflation and the grain crisis due to the conflict in Ukraine, the Egyptian government must deal with terrorism in North Sinai, which remains a marginalised area that extremist jihadists from Daesh Wilaya Sinai (DWS) use as a rear base. While the group was still known as Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, it achieved recognition in 2013 with its best-known attack against the Panamanian-flagged container ship COSTCO ASIA, while the ship was transiting through the Canal, followed by two more attacks 2014 and 2015 against Egyptian navy vessels near the Egyptian coast.

Despite the fact that no major incidents have occurred in Suez since 2013, and in the Sinai region since 2019, DWS resumed its activity at the beginning of this summer. Raids took place recently in May and June, when DWS claimed responsibility for the death of 11 Egyptians soldiers, after attacking at a water pumping station checkpoint at el-Qantara, along the Suez Canal.

The impacts of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and subsequent war, have been felt across many areas of the shipping and wider logistics industry. Our PortRisk team has been on the ground looking at how goods are diverting and where the alternative grain loading has been taking place.

Constanta has seen huge increases in container traffic and the port is working incredibly hard to ensure there is as little disruption as possible as the goods move to land transport.

Grain loading operations in Izhmail are busy with vessels and the marine traffic in the Danube, canals and associated anchorages is already proving challenging.

While crime syndicates in south-east Asia have shifted much of their illegal fuel trading activities to land, recent incidents indicate renewed activity at sea. Although the criminal syndicates are known to primarily target locally trading small tankers, their activities can expose other vessels to acts of theft and robbery.

From 2007 to 2017 smaller sized regionally trading tankers operating on the waters of south-east Asia faced the threat of hijacking. Unlike hijackings off Somalia and later in the Gulf of Guinea, hijackers in this region were not seeking to hold seafarers for ransom, but rather sought to obtain liquid cargoes that could be resold for profit on the black market.

No successful piracy attack has occurred in the last four years off the coast of Somalia, and the UN authorisation to fight piracy in Somali territorial waters has officially ended. Somalia is looking to focus more on IUU fishing and controlling its own waters. But what does this mean for regional anti-piracy efforts?

In the annual meeting of the UN Security Council regarding piracy off the coast of Somalia on the 2nd of December 2021, Somalia called for only a three-month technical rollover of the UN-authorised international naval missions in Somali territorial waters. Despite scepticism from international actors, Somalia argued that the Security Council’s resolution regarding anti-piracy measures had successfully achieved its intended objectives.

Libya now has two rival Prime Ministers, and neither seems intent on backing down in the coming show of force. What does this mean for Libya’s political process, and what impact does this have on the country’s all-important oil & gas sector?

With a contested vote, Libya’s House of Representatives in Tobruq has recently nominated former Fathi Bashagha Prime Minister of the Government of National Unity. Having previously served as GNA Interior Minister and hailing from Misrata, like current PM Abdelhamid Dbeiba, Bashagha enjoys significant support among armed groups and political factions in western Libya, including among the influential Misratan militias.

On 18 March 2021 the last four seafarer hostages held by the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) were freed by the Philippines Armed Forces. Kidnapped from their fishing trawler SSK 00543 in the Sulu Sea about four nautical miles off the coast of Sabah with four of their colleagues on 17 March 2020, they had spent a full year held by ASG militants in encampments throughout the Sulu Archipelago. Three of their shipmates had been freed earlier on 18 January 2021, while one died during a rescue operation on 29 September 2020.

The rescue of the crew kidnapped from the SSK 00543 coincided with a series of misfortunes for the ASG. The rescue took place during an attempt by several ASG leaders and members to flee to Sabah, moving along the Sulu archipelago on motorboats from strongholds on Jolo and Basilan in the east towards Tawi Tawi in the west. ASG operatives who succeeded in fleeing to Sabah did not, however, manage to elude the long arm of the law. Malaysian authorities tracked them down in the jungle of Sabah, where several ASG militants were arrested while others were killed.

Just over a year has passed since the Myanmar armed forces seized control of the government on 1 February 2021 following a general election which Aung San Suu Kyi’s party won by a landslide. The country is still caught up in conflict, and warfare has spread to every region. According to reports, more than 1,500 and 8,000 people were killed and detained in the past year.

The opposition to military rule continued their civil disobedience against the military regime. The military junta circulated leaflets warning that participants would be charged with terrorism, incitement and violating the electronic communications law. Thus, in commemorating the first anniversary of the coup, the protesters held a “silent strike” by staying at home, closing their shops and halting activities for six hours.