Iran and the United States still deadlocked over nuclear issue

Iran’s spokesperson denounces new sanctions imposed by the United States (Source: Iran Foreign Ministry)

19 September 2022

Discussions to reinstate the 2015 JCPOA agreement between Iran and the international community remain deadlocked. The Ukraine situation has again affected the talks as the United States has imposed new sanctions on various Iranian entities.

By Dr. Guy Wilson-Roberts , Head of Intelligence Analysis

Despite some optimism at the end of August that a deal was close, talks between the United States and Iran (which also include the EU, Russia, and China) remain deadlocked. Iran is pushing for more guarantees that any lifting of the crippling sanctions imposed against it will be more enduring and not subject to the political mood in Washington. The United States wants to ensure that Iran’s nuclear ambitions can be put permanently on the shelf, particularly to forestall any unilateral action by Israel.

The talks are to reinstate the 2015 JCPOA agreement between Iran and the international community that President Trump abandoned during his administration. Progress was made in late 2021 but the Russian invasion of Ukraine threw the talks into disarray. The Ukraine situation has again affected the talks as the US has this month imposed new sanctions on various Iranian entities over the alleged supply of Iranian drones to Russia.

Drones are a critical issue in regional security in the Middle East, which includes a maritime dimension. Houthi forces in Yemen have used drones against Saudi Arabian and UAE oil and transport facilities, including port areas. Iran has also used drones to target merchant shipping, notably vessels linked to Israel. These facilities and vessels are particularly vulnerable to such attacks and are targeted as a means to apply wider political pressure.

An agreement between the United States and Iran remains possible – as it is in the interest of both countries to find a workable solution. At the same time the wider political situation in the Middle East is shifting: a tentative ceasefire in Yemen is holding, Iran and Saudi Arabia are cautiously reassessing their relationship, regional dynamics related to Israel are changing, and Turkey is becoming more engaged. As perhaps always, the security threat situation is constantly shifting, based on international and local considerations.