US and Chinese presence in Balochistan: Why Pakistan’s coastal province needs a risk lens

Gwadar port is located in the province of Balochistan and is considered a strategic location due to its proximity to the Strait of Hormuz, which is a major shipping route. Credit: Shehroz khan, via Wikimedia Commons

18 November 2025

Balochistan’s strategic and economic importance has drawn both US and Chinese interest, particularly in its mineral and port sectors. However, the province’s volatile security landscape poses significant risks to foreign projects while the potential for great-power competition over critical resources threatens broader regional stability. As global interest intensifies, continuous monitoring will be key to anticipating disruptions and safeguarding commercial and geopolitical interests in the region.

By Fatima Zainab, Security Analyst Intern

Pakistan’s coastal province of Balochistan has garnered growing international attention over the past decade due to its geostrategic significance and vast resource potential. The province hosts Gwadar Port, which is situated roughly 600 km from the Strait of Hormuz. It provides direct access to the Arabian Sea and acts as a critical node linking Central Asia, the Middle East, and the Indian Ocean trade routes. Moreover, Balochistan holds some of the world’s largest untapped reserves of gold, copper, and rare earth minerals. These factors have drawn the interest of multiple countries, most notably the United States and China.

In 2015, China formally launched the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) with Pakistan. The Gwadar Port became the corridor’s flagship project as it enabled Beijing to bypass the Strait of Malacca and access the Arabian Sea directly. Under CPEC, Chinese firms have secured agreements to extract critical minerals from Balochistan with active projects at the Saindak Copper-Gold Mine and the Duddar Lead‑Zinc Mine. In September 2025, the United States also stepped up its engagement in Balochistan through a MoU between American company U.S. Strategic Metals and the Pakistan government. The agreement allows a $500 million investment in the province’s critical‑minerals sector. The first shipment of minerals was dispatched to the United States in October as a pilot project. To further facilitate U.S. operations, Pakistan has proposed development of the Pasni port in Balochistan as it can provide a dedicated channel for the export of these minerals.

It is important to note that a long-running separatist movement currently affects the province, with the state employing stringent security measures to suppress it. The surge in international attention and foreign investment has exacerbated this instability. It is because the ethnic Baloch population, already saddled with political and economic grievances against the state, views foreign-backed projects as exploitative. As a result, insurgent groups such as the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) have increasingly targeted security forces, foreign workers, and development initiatives. The scale of this insurgency can be gauged from the Global Terrorism Index Report (2025), which reported that the BLA was responsible for over 500 terrorist attacks across Balochistan in the previous year.

The province needs to be viewed through a risk lens for two key reasons. First, as U.S. and Chinese involvement deepens, additional countries and commercial actors are likely to engage in Balochistan. This would likely amplify local grievances and heighten the threat of insurgency. Second, drawing parallels from other resource-rich regions such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, or even the Arctic, demonstrates that when major powers get involved in competition over critical resources it often leads to tensions and eventually militarization. Therefore, continuous monitoring is essential to anticipate risks and safeguard development projects in the region, particularly those relevant to commercial trade.

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