*Drone flying over the Black Sea. Image: Alamy*

8 September 2025

Recent Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports like Chornomorsk and Izmail signal a continuation of threats to commercial shipping in the Black Sea, although the intended targets cannot be confirmed, the attacks do reflect the tit-for-tat strategies between Ukraine and Russia targeting each other’s export capabilities.

By Hans-Kristian Pedersen, Mediterranean and Black Sea analyst

The recent attacks in August, against Ukrainian port infrastructure at Chornomorsk and Izmail, do not in of themselves indicate a significant change in the threat picture to commercial maritime operations in the Black Sea. Both Chornomorsk and Izmail have been targeted by Russian attacks before and therefore the recent attacks do not constitute any new scenario in relation to merchant shipping. The attacks emphasise the ongoing threats concerning the ports. However, given that both ports have not been targeted by Russian forces for the past six months, does on the one hand follow a pattern seen elsewhere, including other ports such as Odesa or Mykolaiv which have also previously been targeted following pauses in attacks. On the other hand, the recent attacks do pose the question: why now?

Although the actual intentions of the Russian forces cannot be verified, there is a degree of tit-for-tat in their approach. The Ukrainian forces have been targeting Russian oil installations during the past year a while in an attempt to disrupt the ability for Russia to continue to export oil products and thereby receive the income needed to continue its war in Ukraine. It can be argued that Russia, by attacking Ukrainian port cities, is aiming at disrupting Ukraine’s ability to obtain income from grain and other exports via the Black Sea. There is an ever-present likelihood of collateral damage to any vessel that may be in the vicinity of the attack on a given port – a vessel is therefore more likely to be impacted by a port attack while in port compared with during transit. Furthermore, it is possible that Russia is attempting to deter vessels from calling at Ukrainian ports.

Reporting on the recent incident in Chornomorsk included that a vessel was impacted by some kind of explosion, but did not, according to reports, suffer any significant damage. The reported reason for the explosion varied from the vessel hitting a floating mine or explosive debris falling from a drone shot down by Ukrainian forces. Although the details vary, these varying scenarios are not improbable and further highlight in the various and precarious nature of operating in the area. It was also suggested that the explosion might have been caused by a mine being dropped by a drone, although this is considered a less likely scenario.

The August attacks towards port infrastructure have occurred while larger attacks against the whole of Ukraine have also been undertaken by Russian forces. In particular, the capital Kyiv has seen large-scale combined drone and missile attacks. If nothing else, the recent attacks underline the ongoing perilous security factors related to operating in the Ukrainian waters of the Black Sea – and while it cannot be confirmed that port infrastructure or vessel are the primary targets – the area remains considered an active war zone. The ports are in population centres, which are targeted by Russian attacks to degrade Ukrainian morale, and collateral damage is always possible. The ongoing focus of commercial maritime operations in the area should therefore be, that any pause in attacks towards a particular Ukrainian Black Sea port, does not indicate that the port will not be a future target for Russian aggression or that the threat to vessels has diminished.

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