Maritime security situation in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov

Vessels transiting the established Humanitarian Grain Corridor in the Black Sea, as permitted by the Initiative. Image: Alamy

17 November 2022

In relation to commercial maritime operations, the overall regional security situation in the Black Sea remains dominated by the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. The situation directly relates to the north-western Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, and two recent events in particular have affected the maritime domain.

By Hans-Kristian Pedersen, Mediterranean and Black Sea Analyst

On 8 October, the Russian built Crimea bridge across the Kerch Strait, opened by Russian president Putin in 2018 for road traffic and rail in 2019, was attacked, closing the bridge and halting vessels transiting the Strait. Prior to the attack on the Crimea bridge, vessel traffic transiting the Strait had already been less, especially given that, at around the same time of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia announced that the Sea of Azov was prohibited for navigation. Although various vessels are again transiting the Sea – these predominantly appear to have some connection to Russia as the Sea is still assessed as closed for normal transits – traffic is still less than before the attack.

Russia responded to the Crimea bridge attack by targeting Ukrainian infrastructure on land, but without any additional maritime implications. However, when Russian naval vessels at the port of Sevastopol in Crimea were attacked on 29 October in a series of drone strikes, Russia informed the UN Joint Coordination Centre that they would withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative – accusing Ukraine of using the shipping corridor for military purposes.

The withdrawal by Russia disrupted the flow of vessels transiting the established corridor, leading to confusion as to the future of the shipments permitted by the Initiative. Following diplomacy led by Turkey, Russia rejoined the Initiative on 2 November. New negotiations are being conducted regarding an extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which is expected to continue until 19 November. Russia has stated that it could withdraw again, and the future of the corridor for shipments remains uncertain. 

The overall situation continues to develop, and these two events highlight that the circumstances regarding vessel movements are likely to remain volatile for the time being.

MARITIME SECURITY REPORTS:

There are several Risk Intelligence reports that can help you assess the risk of a specific route, or provide further background for decision-making in the form of a threat assessment

The Voyage Risk Assessment zooms in on a vessel and its voyage specifics, and offers an independent third party view on necessary security measures, wheras the Monthly Intelligence Report offers comprehensive analysis of recent incidents and a threat assessment for three main regions on a subscription basis. 

For maritime shipping operators with vessels in the Black Sea, please see our weekly Northern Black Sea Intelligence Report here: