East Asia: North and South Korea Relations

North Korean missile test firing. Image: KCNA

10 November 2022

In the absence of ongoing negotiations between the parties, North Korea has frequently demonstrated provocative behaviour in response to US and South Korean military exercises. The recent missile launches were reportedly aimed to imitate the use of tactical nuclear weapons against the South as a warning following large-scale naval drills conducted by South Korean and US forces.

By Katie Zeng Xiaojun, North, South and Central Asia Analyst

On 2 November 2022, North Korea test fired 23 missiles at offshore locations, the most in a single day on record. One of the short-range ballistic missiles was launched in the direction of South Korea’s Ulleung Island, triggering an air raid alert. That same missile landed 26 kilometres south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL)— the disputed maritime border between North and South Korea.

North Korea has been conducting missile tests since 1984, after establishing its first Tonghae Satellite Launching Ground. However, in 2014, North Korea changed its missile testing patterns dramatically, launching missiles more frequently and from various new locations. North Korea has conducted more than sixty missile tests this year as compared to eight in all of 2021. Most of the missiles are launched towards the Sea of Japan/East Sea, with the exception of an intercontinental ballistic missile reaching as far as Guam.

North Korea has repeatedly shown to respond belligerently to US and South Korean military exercises when there is no ongoing diplomacy taking place among the parties concerned. It was reported that the recent missile tests were designed to simulate showering the South with tactical nuclear weapons as a warning after large-scale navy drills by South Korean and US forces. The tests simulated striking military command facilities, main ports, and airports in the South. North Korea has also constantly released statements and maps that make clear that these launches are exercises targeting US forces in South Korea and Japan.

Although it is a legal requirement to advise the IMO of any missile tests taking place in maritime areas, North Korea has not always been compliant with this requirement. To date, all the missiles have landed outside shipping zones and there have been no reports of a commercial vessel being hit or that the tests have disrupted shipping. As the United States and South Korea seek to enhance extended deterrence through their joint military exercises, North Korea’s multiple missile tests, combined with artillery firing or warplanes exercises, will likely become a new normal.

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