Skuld | Maritime security in the northern Black Sea: Operational realities and emerging risks

Merchant vessels navigating at distance in the northern Black Sea. Credit: Nataliia Shcherbyna, Alamy

Risk Intelligence Senior Analyst Dirk Siebels provided input to an article published by Skuld, analysing the evolving maritime security situation in the northern Black Sea in the context of the Russia–Ukraine conflict.

Published on 6 February 2026, the article outlines how the Russia–Ukraine war has reshaped the maritime security landscape across the Black Sea and beyond, drawing on insights from Dirk Siebels of Risk Intelligence. It highlights that merchant vessels now face a mix of kinetic and operational threats, including drone attacks, sea mines and widespread GNSS interference, with elevated operational risks notably for those calling at ports in both Ukraine and Russia.

The analysis notes that Ukraine’s expanding long-range strike capabilities, attacks on tankers linked to Russian oil exports, and repeated strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure have broadened the threat picture and increased the risk of collateral damage to berthed vessels. Persistent GNSS disruption, mine threats in the north-western Black Sea, and high security levels at Ukrainian ports highlight ongoing operational challenges, with maritime security risks expected to remain elevated and evolving.

Read full article on Skuld.

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