In the past few weeks, there has been a marked increase in the number of attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil and transport infrastructure. Missiles and drones have been launched on a weekly basis against a number of Saudi targets, but some observers in the maritime security sector appear unfazed, even as large oil facilities have been hit.

The low risk for commercial shipping despite this increase in drone and missile attacks can be attributed to the nature of the targets, and the intentions of those behind the attacks. Saudi Arabia is involved in a conflict in Yemen, and is fighting against the Houthis. While the Houthis have previously directed missiles and drones at vessels, and may do so again, in general they prefer launching these relatively complicated weapons at static targets in Saudi Arabia.

The war is currently at a standstill, and exports are continuing. But can this situation last? How can the war further impact exports and trade to Libya?

Two factions, the GNA and the LNA, are competing for power. In the West, and controlling much of the country’s population, lies the Government of National Accord (GNA). The Tripoli-based GNA is recognised by the UN as the legitimate government of Libya, but is struggling to assert its power over the parts of the country it rules.

The GNA relies on militias and foreign powers, notably Turkey, to prop up its military power and ensure its continued existence. To the east, in Benghazi, lies the Libyan National Army (LNA) controlled by Khalifa Haftar, a former officer in the Libyan forces and defector from Gaddafi’s regime. The LNA likewise relies on militias and foreign backers, the UAE, Russia and France among others, to control its territories. Just like the GNA, it is struggling to keep these militias’ powers in check.