Black Sea: Troublesome waters
23 November 2021
The Black Sea region has been regularly highlighted in the media in recent years. Issues like organised crime and smugglers’ fraud and corruption are the factors that influence the local security setup. Hans-Kristian Pedersen provides an update of the current situation in the region.
By Hans-Kristian Pedersen, Mediterranean and Black Sea Analyst
The history of the Black Sea being a troublesome water to navigate is known since ancient times. However, these days the troublesome aspect includes issues of navigating the politics of region in general. This is particularly the case when considering issues such as the Crimean Peninsula, the ongoing conflict in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, The Sea of Azov and tensions regarding the wider Black Sea such as the South Ossetia conflict in Georgia in 2008 and more the recent flareup of the dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh territories between Armenia and Azerbaijan. All acts by the major regional actors, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine all influence the dynamics of the region.
Organised crime elements and people smugglers are known to operate in the region and known to also be involved in facilitating and or enabling the transportation of irregular migrants. The modus operandi varies but does include stealing vehicles or vessels, conspiring with drivers to facilitate transportation via regular logistics routes and smuggling migrants onto into regular transport vehicles and vessels, without driver involvement. For shipping the 2017 KAUNAS Seaways ferry incident is a case in point.
Generally, fraud and corruption are significant issues throughout the Black Sea region – though with some national and regional differences. The issue is considered higher in Ukraine and Russia than Romania and Turkey, as examples. This includes customs officials which could affect maritime and wider logistics operations. Arbitrary testing of ballast water from detained vessels at some Ukrainian ports, underlines this as such procedures are considered unlawful.
For the region, with varying stages of economic progress, smuggling activity is considered to involve common commercial goods in order to avoid paying taxes and customs, smuggling of commodities is also considered as part of wider organised crime activities, utilising their own smuggling networks. However, several incidents of smuggling are also known to take place in connection with normal logistics operations and therefore such incidents and implications cannot be ruled out.
The current situation is largely considered a very frozen conflict. Actual militarisation in or of the Transnistria break-away region is, as it stands, unlikely. However, it is worth assessing the shared characteristics with Russian involvement in the other, previously mentioned areas, where various forms of militarisation have occurred, with some escalation resulting in kinetic conflict.
2021 has seen several naval exercises, both Russian and NATO organised, take place in the Black Sea, all of which point toward an increased focus on and interest in demonstrating regional capabilities. Turkey has shown a particular interest in being engaged with both sides, with the purchase of the Russian military equipment while also hosting American naval vessels at it’s ports.
Although any future escalation cannot be ruled out, it is deemed less likely in the near term and any escalation is more likely to be part of wider military activity in the region – to serve interests and strengthen spheres of influence.
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