Gulf of Guinea - 2021 Annual Figures and Situation Update
Image capturing pirates in the Gulf of Guinea
Has the threat level declined in the Gulf of Guinea? - The region registered a decrease in the number of attacks and hostages
While there have been some improvements related to piracy in 2021, illicit activities at sea are still widespread across the Gulf of Guinea. The presence of international navies has been widely mentioned as one of the main reasons, yet outside actors have been present in the region for a long time and continue to focus almost exclusively on counter-piracy operations. At the same time, the situation on land has become even more complex during the Covid-19 pandemic, not only in Nigeria. Moreover, drops in pirate attacks over prolonged periods have been observed in the past and the situation can change within weeks. While looking at developments over the past 12 months, potential ones over the coming months can be discussed and key trends can be identified. These trends must further be monitored to ensure that risks to seafarers, ships and cargoes can be mitigated.
Drop in piracy incidents
Different annual reports, alongside Risk Intelligence’s one, underlined a sharp drop in piracy incidents, petty theft and robbery. However, that doesn’t mean that the threat has reduced significantly or the threat has gone. It is quite the opposite, the threat remains and the apparent decline should be treated with caution.
Considering the background, it is worth having in mind a few significant events in the region, as Nigeria’s launch of the Deep Blue Program, the new patrol vessel commissioned in Gabon, investments in new hardware in Cote d’Ivoire or the new vessels received by Ghana. There is investment ongoing in the area, but it is still coming from a relatively low level, as navies traditionally are underfunded compared to other military branches. One additional aspect to bear in mind is the increasing cooperation, as for example the case when Ghana, Togo and Benin joined their forces to tackle IUU fishing. More, the international involvement has been significant, from naval vessels from various EU member states operating in the Gulf of Guinea, to US presence in the region.
Apart from the decrease in piracy incidents, in 2021 significant efforts took place at both regional and international level. Even so, the same results are not guaranteed in the medium term. Looking at the region, all governments have been affected by the Covid crisis, leading to the governments’ revenues decreasing and the spending priorities changing, which consequently reflects in no priority to invest in maritime assets. However, the cooperation efforts were significant, particularly with the new forum named SHADE that brings together different actors, international partners, regional countries and also the shipping industry, where the parties are talking with each other and through working level meetings they come to operational improvements or other significant outcomes. Even so, given that the forum was formed in July 2021, it is hard to say if it is the one leading to the positive results. In addition, the problem with SHADE is that its focus remains on counter piracy, therefore ignoring other maritime security issues in the regions, no mater how important they are.
Figures and trends from 2021 in the Gulf of Guinea:
22 kidnap-for-ransom attacks
The total number of failed and successful attacks aimed at taking crew members as hostages dropped by more than 50% compared to 2020. Despite this drop, the overall threat level has not decreased.
68 kidnapped seafarers
A promising development, as there were over 140 seafarers kidnapped the year before, While this year’s number remains far too high, the reduction is at least a step in the right direction for crews on merchant ships operating in region.
52% decrease in the number of seafarers who were kidnapped
The number of seafarers who were kidnapped in the Gulf of Guinea dropped by 52% in 2021, yet the threat level remains high. Several high-profile incidents – most recently in December with six hostages taken from a container ship – highlighted the continued need for vigilance.
While looking over a 5-year period, on average, during the rainy season in Niger Delta (from June to September) there are traditionally very few attacks taking place anywhere. Similarly, the end of the year in 2021 was particularly quiet compared with previous years, even if December suffered an attack against a container ship with six seafarers kidnapped. This event underlines that the threat level has not reduced significantly, and is still very much in place. Therefore, shipping companies should have their mitigation measures in place, with their crews very well prepared.
Piracy in a larger context:
There’s a broad variety of illicit activities taking place across all the countries in Western Central Africa – all the way from Senegal down to Angola:
Fuel smuggling on a massive scale
From Nigeria to neighbouring countries, and to Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon or Equatorial Guinea and more, fuel smuggling is taking place on a massive scale, which has a significant impact also on governments’ revenues, as the governments can not collect import duties. Smuggling of fuel in Ghana, for example, cost the government around 300 million USD in lost revenues, with a significant impact on politics.
Increasing drug smuggling
Weather supply is ramping up or West Africa is becoming again important as a transport route, there was an increasing amount of seizures of cocaine taking place during the year.
Illegal fishing
Through this, the governmental revenues are massively impacted as there are less sales, but the local population is affected as well, because many people are reliant on fishing. It represents a very important problem which is not sustainable in any shape or form.
An additional aspect worth having in mind is that many incidents in the last years were reported as piracy, as it might be more convenient. Investigations into piracy cases are often very inconclusive, as regional governments don’t have the capabilities or the surveillance capacities to know exactly what is going on in the exclusive economic zone, and therefore the data might not be reliable.
The threat level remains in place
As mentioned before, just because the number of incidents has dropped, it does not mean that the threat level dropped as well, but it remained in place. Crews are still recommended to be always well prepared and vigilant. They should also bear in mind that the number of attacks between daytime and nightime was the same in the past six years, but the success rate of the number of attacks where seafarers were kidnapped was much higher during the nighttime, as it becomes harder to identify attackers early. Similarly, the vessels operators should take advantage of the best management practices, as they are still not fully implemented, or not implemented at all, and consequently lead to exposure to attacks.
What should you consider when looking at the situation in the Gulf of Guinea?
The focus on counter-piracy remains problematic, even if it is understandable from a shipping industry point of view, as it is the main concern of shipping operators. However, the broader maritime security issues are rarely addressed, and for a sustainable solution, they should be considered as well.
Short-term solutions will not solve long-term problems. As mentioned above, all maritime security issues have to be addressed for a sustainable solution.
It is vital for vessels operators to adopt and adjust security procedures and guidelines in addition to industry guidance (BMP West Africa), and doing anything on top of that to mitigate the threat of attacks, or the potential outcome if a vessel is attacked randomly.
Port Security Risk Assessments and Voyage Risk Assessments are recommended in order to improve preparedness on company level, as well as for the crew. Similarly, it is important to do due diligence to ensure that as an operator, you are working with a business partner that you can trust.
FAQ:
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The only functioning infrastructure for kidnappers is in the Niger Delta, so spreading is not likely to increase to more than a relatively limited geographical area. Otherwise, different countries rarely have armed robberies against ships.
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The forum is essentially set up by Western nations and the African countries are only invited as guests, which represents a problem, as it does not result in considerable outcomes, but for some policy consideration. The actual work is being done on a different level, and SHADE of the Gulf of Guinea is a particularly good example for that, as they are getting actual operational results, making people on the operational level come together and talk to each other, rather than having policy declarations.
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There is a lot of anecdotal evidence that would suggest that certainly illegal fishing, but also fuel smuggling in particular have gone up across the region. When looking at organized crime, anywhere in the World, or just in the Gulf of Guinea, you look at the what’s the risk and what is the reward for any operation, and the risk level has gone up a little for piracy. But arguably, it might also be because the reward level for all these other things, particularly fuels or smuggling has gone up significantly, as it is a lot more money to be earned easily.
Taking Covid into consideration, it has had an impact on peoples' everyday lives. They were not concerned about buying fuel or agricultural goods from the black markets if it was cheaper, which makes it worthwhile for many organized criminal groups to be involved in smuggling.
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The Deep Blue Program is important in the maritime world, and mostly because it is run by the Nigerian Maritime Administration, NIMASA. That is because, we have seen similar efforts or investments going to the Nigerian Navy before, and it was often identified as a problem that a lot of money was spent on new vessels. Those vessels were afterwards offered as gifts to other countries in the region, or were staying alongside, as countries were not able to afford fuels or spare parts.
NIMASA is a self-financing organization, meaning they have to finance the recurring costs for the Deep Blue Program, and contribute with money to the federal government in Nigeria. What's more, the program is about security and law enforcement, not only counter piracy.
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First, there is not going to be an amnesty for pirates. People who chose to become pirates do not just turn to looking for full-time jobs again. It is important to keep in mind that it is not like the threat is gone. There are still attacks and foot soldiers are still quite easy to recruit, as they are everyday people.
Second, the number of attacks might fluctuate, but the situation hasn’t fundamentally changed. That is the main issue. There have always been ups and downs and a number of incidents in hotspots in the areas where these attacks are taking place. In the longer term, looking at 5 years, it will be more under control than it was in the last 2 years.
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The shipping industry is already involved in SHADE in the Gulf of Guinea, which is already a good step. The best that international individual companies can do is just work together with various navies across the Gulf of Guinea and build relationships and trust.
One important aspect for international partners is to take into consideration problems like other maritime security issues but piracy. Not paying attention to those challenges does not represent a sustainable solution in the long term.