Strategic Insights No. 22 Published

The Issue Contains the Following Articles

The Cabinda conflict: A new Gulf of Guinea-style insurgency in the making?
The tiny but oil-rich Angolan enclave of Cabinda was catapulted into the spotlight in January as militants ambushed the Togo national football team during the African cup of Nations. Within the editorial, RAND Senior Policy Analyst, Dr. Peter Chalk, examines the implications of the remerging insurgency movement within Cabinda and the potential for it to become a Niger Delta-style campaign whereby oil exploration and coastal security could be jeopardised.

The 8 February Sabah kidnappings and potential implications for the region
Returning to the east coast of Borneo, two Chinese businessmen were kidnapped from a seaweed farm on 8 February in the wake of the American travel advisory in January. Suspicions continue as to whether the Philippine terrorist group, Abu Sayyaf was behind the incident as the region continues to witness various illegal maritime activities. Risk Intelligence Senior Analyst Karsten von Hoesslin explores in depth the implications of the incident for both Malaysia, Philippines, and the region in general through the lenses of a basic kidnapping and the more potentially consequential act by Abu Sayyaf.

MaRisk feature analysis:The Niger Delta insurgency- into the next round
Developments within the Niger Delta continue to unfold as the militants grapple with the Nigerian government both in the creeks as well as at the negotiating table. The implications continue to affect the operations of maritime traffic and inshore/offshore oil operations. Risk Intelligence Director of Consulting, Dirk Steffen, examines the recent militant and criminal activities within the Niger Delta in this issue’s MaRisk Analysis Feature.

Evaluating the ISPS Code amidst complex and evolving threats to maritime security (Part 1)
It has been nearly six years since the implementation of the International Ship and Port Security Facility (ISPS) Code and the debate of its utility continues. Stowaway activities, narcotics and weapons trafficking, and various forms of armed sea robbery were initially targeted and declined after the implementation of ISPS. However, there is little evidence to suggest that ISPS measures are reducing stowaway movements and trafficking activities both within port facilities and at sea. Risk Intelligence Consultant, Rupert Herbert Burns examines these challenges with reference to the ISPS Code in a two-part series starting in this issue.